Saturday, May 8, 2010

High LOB count catching up with Twins

"That's why they play the game." It's a rather common saying in the sports world. Basically it means that just because a team is theoretically better than another on paper (overall records, stats, etc.), that doesn't mean the outcome of the games will always work out that way.

Twins versus Birds
Case in point: The Minnesota Twins versus the Balitmore Orioles in a four-game set May 6 through May 9 at Target Field. The Twins (19-9 before series) are in first place in the AL Central; the Orioles (7-21 before series) bring up the rear in the AL East.

If you're thinking the Twins should have no trouble brooming the Birds, this time you're wrong. Sure, on paper you'd be a wise better to pick the Twins. But if you did for this series, you've lost some money. Heading into the nightcap of the split doubleheader on Saturday (Friday's game was rained out.), the Twins were down two games to none.

They lost 2-0 on Thursday night, and 7-3 on a chilly, rainy Saturday afternoon. Thursday's loss was particularly hard to take. For his second outing in a row, Carl Pavano got zero run support for his stellar pitching performance. The two runs were scored on an early-inning two-run shot by veteran Ty Wiggington, who's second in the league in homers.

Struggling with runners on
The Twins' bats struggled yet again with runners on base, and also with the bases full. It's been the story all season. Heading into Saturday, the Twins were an abysmal 7-for-47 (.149) with the bases juiced. That's not good.

If the LOB (left on base) count was looked at as a serious statistic, I wouldn't doubt that the Twins would be leading the majors in this category. Game after game it seems they continue to leave multiple men (sometimes in the double digits) on base, failing to bring those runs around to score.

Of course, it's a little nit-picky to focus on such a what if?-statistic. The LOB count is like shots-on-goal in hockey. It doesn't matter. What matters is how many goals/runs you score.

Throughout April, the Twins kept up their trends of leaving runners on base. The important thing is they were winning ball games. Good teams get some luck, and I think that's what happened to the Twins. They were finding ways to win without the big hits.

Gotta win the easy ones
Now it's catching up with them. A team comes in here with a horrible record, and also some not-so-amazing pitchers with hitter-friendly ERAs. And what have the Twins done? Struggled. Yes, it's only two games, but these should be "gimmes" for a team that's supposed to be a contender.

On Thursday, it was the bats that went silent. The Twins had a chance to set a team record for scoring in the first inning for seven games in a row. That obviously didn't happen.

Saturday afternoon it was a little bit of the offsense and the fact the Francisco Liriano had an off day, giving up 10 hits and five earned runs in six innings of work. Of course, Jason Kubel (.209) continued his hitting slump, and designated hitter Jim Thome struck out and hit into a double play.

On the bright side, Justin Morneau hit his first bomb at Target Field for a two-run shot in the first. Michael Cuddyer continues to enjoy the new digs as he went yard yet again for his fifth homer of the season.

Why they play the games
It's nothing to panic about, but the bottom line is the Twins should be beating up on the Birds, especially at home. After two 163-game seasons, we've learned every game means something.

These guys have a great lineup of hitters, and eventually the average with the bases loaded has to get better, and the clutch hits will start coming. As for when, time will tell. "That's why they play the game."

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